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The Missile, The Mediator, and The Shadow of Budapest

The Mirage of Peace in Gaza's Second Act

Friday, 17 October 2025 22:42

Abstract

A high-stakes meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at the White House on 17 October 20251,3 centred on Kyiv's urgent request for long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles1,2. The request, intended to provide Ukraine with the deep-strike capability necessary to compel Russia into serious peace negotiations7,9, was met with hesitation from the American leader1,2. This reluctance was framed by Mr Trump's recent, lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin1,10 and the subsequent announcement of a planned US-Russia summit in Budapest, Hungary10,11. The diplomatic flurry placed the future of US military aid and the trajectory of the war in Ukraine under a cloud of uncertainty11,22.

Historical Context

Recent Findings

The White House and the Long-Range Appeal

President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington on 17 October 20253,6 for his sixth in-person meeting with President Donald Trump since the latter’s return to office6. The Ukrainian leader, who wore a military-style jacket for the occasion1, was greeted by Mr Trump, who complimented his attire, calling him a “very strong leader”1. The primary objective of the visit was to secure a commitment for the transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles, a weapon system Kyiv views as essential to shifting the strategic balance of the three-and-a-half-year-old conflict15.

During the public portion of the meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House9, Mr Zelensky made his case directly, stating that Ukraine needed the powerful American missiles13. He argued that possessing the Tomahawks would serve as “additional pressure on Putin to sit down and talk,” even if the weapons were not immediately used19. Ukrainian officials had been lobbying Washington for the missiles for weeks15, believing the long-range capability would increase the economic and military costs of Moscow’s war6. The Ukrainian President also used the opportunity to congratulate Mr Trump on the “successful ceasefire” that the US President had brokered in the Middle East the previous week1,15.

Mr Trump, however, signalled a clear reluctance to approve the transfer of the long-range weapons9. He repeatedly stressed the importance of the US maintaining its own stockpile, stating, “We want Tomahawks, also. We don’t want to be giving away things that we need to protect our country”1. He described the Tomahawk as a “big deal”1,13 and suggested that supplying them could be a “major escalation” in the conflict12. The US President’s overriding theme was his hope for a swift diplomatic resolution, telling reporters, “Hopefully, we’ll be able to get the war over without thinking about Tomahawks”1,2. This doubtful tone marked a shift from Mr Trump’s rhetoric earlier in the week, when he had suggested he was seriously weighing the option of sending the missiles9.

The Calculus of Escalation

The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) is a precision-guided, long-range cruise missile5,7 that has been a cornerstone of US deep-strike capability since its first combat use in 19917. Modern conventional variants, such as the Block IV Tactical Tomahawk (TACTOM)4, have a range of approximately 1,600 kilometres (1,000 miles)5,7,9. The longest-range variant, the nuclear-capable Block II, which entered service in 19837, had a range of up to 2,500 kilometres (1,550 miles)7,8. The missile flies at a low altitude, around 30 to 90 metres (100 to 300 feet)8, at a speed of 885 kilometres (550 miles) per hour8, making it difficult for air defence systems to detect14. The Block IV version is particularly advanced, featuring a data link that allows it to loiter for hours and switch targets instantly while in flight4.

For Ukraine, the acquisition of Tomahawks would represent a dramatic expansion of its long-range strike capabilities6. While Ukraine has developed its own long-range weapons, such as the Flamingo missile, which reportedly has a range of over 1,609 kilometres (1,000 miles)5,7, and has received Western-supplied systems like the US-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) with a maximum range of 306 kilometres (190 miles)5,7, the Tomahawk offers a proven, high-volume, precision-strike option5. The Institute for the Study of War estimated that hundreds of Russian military targets, including logistics hubs, airfields, and command centres deep inside Russian territory, would be brought within range7.

However, the Tomahawk system presents logistical challenges for Kyiv. The missiles are typically launched from naval vessels or submarines4,7, which Ukraine does not possess7. A land-launched variant, the Typhon, is available, but the US Army is known to have only two launchers, and the systems are in short supply7. Furthermore, the estimated cost of each missile is approximately $1.3 million (£1 million)7. The strategic value, in Kyiv’s view, was not just the ability to strike, but the leverage it would provide in negotiations, forcing Moscow to consider the vulnerability of its rear-echelon assets7,9.

The Shadow of Budapest

The atmosphere of the White House meeting was heavily influenced by a diplomatic development that had unfolded just one day prior6. On 16 October 202510, President Trump held a “long call”1 with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which lasted for two-and-a-half hours21,22. Following the conversation, Mr Trump announced on his Truth Social network that he and Mr Putin would soon meet in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss an end to the war10,11. The US President described the call as “productive”10,11 and stated that he believed “great progress was made”10. He later suggested the summit would take place “within two weeks or so”21. The choice of Budapest was jointly made with Mr Putin, with Mr Trump citing a shared respect for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán12. Hungary’s government had already made clear it would not arrest Mr Putin, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC)3.

The timing of the announcement, coming just hours before Mr Zelensky’s arrival in Washington11,22, was viewed by many in Kyiv as a deliberate attempt by the Kremlin to derail the Ukrainian President’s mission to secure advanced weaponry11,22. During the call, Mr Putin directly raised the matter of the Tomahawk missiles6, urging Mr Trump not to supply them2. The Russian leader warned that such a move would not change the situation on the battlefield but would cause “significant harm to relations” between Russia and the US6. Mr Putin had previously warned on 5 October that arming Ukraine with long-range missiles capable of reaching Siberia would mark a “new stage of escalation”21.

Ukrainian officials offered a mixed reaction. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha attempted to put a positive spin on the development, writing on X that the mere discussion of Tomahawk missiles had already forced Mr Putin back into dialogue with America2,20. However, Oleksandr Merezhko, a top Member of Parliament from Mr Zelensky’s party, suggested that Mr Putin was merely trying to lure Mr Trump into negotiations to avoid sanctions and military assistance to Ukraine22. Mr Merezhko stated that Mr Putin “got scared because Trump promised to provide Tomahawks”22. Mr Zelensky himself posted on social media hours before the meeting that the call had changed nothing, pointing to a swarm of Russian drone strikes that had hit his hometown of Kryvyi Rih overnight11,20.

A Proposition of Drones

In an effort to overcome Mr Trump’s stated concerns about depleting US military stockpiles1,9, President Zelensky presented a novel proposition: a technology exchange12. He offered to provide the United States with Ukraine’s advanced, domestically produced drones in exchange for the long-range Tomahawk systems9,12,17. Mr Zelensky told reporters that the US could receive Ukraine’s “thousands of drones”12, adding, “We want to work together and help strengthen U.S. capability”12.

This proposal was viewed by foreign policy experts as a “smart, strategic” move that leveraged Ukraine’s wartime technological edge16. The conflict has seen rapid advancements in unmanned systems, with Ukraine becoming a global leader in drone innovation and production16. The Ukrainian-made Flamingo missile, for instance, was described by Mr Zelensky as his country’s most successful weapon5. The US President responded positively to the idea, calling it “interesting”12 and confirming that US officials were examining Ukrainian drone technology12. Mr Trump acknowledged that Ukraine makes a “very good drone”1,16 and noted that drone warfare had “really come to the fore” because of the war16.

Beyond the Tomahawk-for-drone proposal, the two leaders discussed other critical areas of military and economic cooperation20. Mr Zelensky was expected to press for increased long-range weapons, targeting assistance, and intelligence sharing6,20. He also met with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and American energy companies to discuss expanding US access to European gas markets by storing American liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Ukrainian facilities20. This focus on energy security underscored Kyiv’s need to reinforce its own power grid against Russian strikes6.

The Domestic Political Tightrope

Mr Trump’s shifting position on the Tomahawk missiles reflected the complex domestic and international pressures surrounding US aid to Ukraine9. His initial openness to the idea, which included a warning to Mr Putin that he might send the missiles if the war was not settled10, was quickly tempered by the Russian President’s direct intervention2. The US President’s primary concern, as stated, was the depletion of the US military’s own inventory1,9. This concern is rooted in the broader strategic assessment of US readiness for potential future conflicts1.

Mr Trump’s diplomatic approach, which prioritises a negotiated end to the war, has created a pattern of engagement with Mr Putin that has repeatedly raised concerns in Kyiv11,22. The announcement of the Budapest summit, which would be the second meeting between the two leaders since 20226, was seen by critics as a move that could be exploited by Russia to buy time and deflect pressure11. Mr Trump, however, framed himself as a mediator13, expressing confidence that he could persuade Mr Putin to end the invasion he launched in 202215. He told reporters that he thought both Mr Zelensky and Mr Putin wanted the war to end13.

Despite the US President’s focus on diplomacy, the US has continued to provide military support to Ukraine over the last four years2. Mr Trump’s administration has also previously supported the idea that Ukraine, with European backing, could reclaim all Russian-occupied territories6. The political dynamic in Washington remains a tightrope walk, balancing the desire to end the conflict quickly with the strategic imperative of supporting an ally against Russian aggression20. The final decision on the Tomahawk transfer, which Mr Trump said was still ‘under discussion’1, will serve as a critical indicator of the administration’s commitment to Kyiv’s long-term military objectives versus its immediate diplomatic goals.

Conclusion

The White House meeting on 17 October 20253 concluded without a definitive commitment on the Tomahawk missiles12, leaving Kyiv’s hopes for a major boost in deep-strike capability in limbo9. President Trump’s hesitation, driven by concerns over US military readiness and the potential for escalation1,12, was clearly amplified by his recent, lengthy conversation with President Putin10. The announcement of the Budapest summit11 has effectively shifted the immediate focus from military aid to high-level diplomacy, a move that has been met with both cautious optimism and deep suspicion in Ukraine2,22. While the proposed drone-for-missile exchange offers a potential path forward for a new model of US-Ukraine military-industrial cooperation16, the immediate future of the conflict now rests on the uncertain prospects of a negotiated settlement brokered by the US President13. The coming weeks, leading up to the planned summit in Hungary21, will determine whether Mr Trump’s diplomatic push can genuinely accelerate an end to the war or if it will merely provide Moscow with a strategic pause11,22.

References

  1. Trump discussing Tomahawk missiles with Zelenskyy but hopes to end war without them

    Supports the date of the meeting (October 17, 2025), the core request (Tomahawk missiles), Trump's quotes on hesitation ('We want Tomahawks, also'), the drone trade idea, the compliment on Zelensky's jacket, and the context of the Putin call.

  2. Trump downplays hopes he will supply Ukraine with US missiles after meeting with Zelenskyy

    Supports Trump's hesitation, his quote about needing Tomahawks for a future conflict, the context of the Putin call, Putin's warning about damage to US-Russian relations, and the positive spin from Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

  3. Trump hesitant about giving Tomahawks to Ukraine, saying 'hopefully they won't need it' – as it happened

    Confirms the date (October 17, 2025), the White House location, Trump's quote about the difficulty of giving 'massive numbers of very powerful weapons,' the Putin call, and the Budapest summit plan, including Hungary's stance on the ICC warrant.

  4. Tomahawk® Cruise Missile | Raytheon - RTX

    Provides technical details on the Tomahawk, including its precision, launch platforms (ships, submarines, ground launchers), range (1,000 miles), and the capabilities of the Block IV (TACTOM) variant, such as in-flight target switching.

  5. FACTBOX | Why Ukraine wants Tomahawk missiles, and what they can do

    Details the Tomahawk's range (1,000 miles/1,600 km), its role in deep-strike missions, and compares it to Ukraine's existing missiles like ATACMS, Neptune, and the domestically made Flamingo, including the Flamingo's range.

  6. Zelensky meets Trump in Washington as Ukraine hopes for Tomahawk deliveries

    Confirms the date (Oct. 17), the meeting being the sixth since Trump's return to office, the context of the Trump-Putin call one day prior, the planned Budapest summit, Ukraine's goal to target Russian military sites and energy infrastructure, and Putin's warning of a 'qualitatively new stage of escalation.'

  7. What are Tomahawk missiles and why does Ukraine want them?

    Provides detailed technical specifications (first use in 1991, range of modern/older variants, speed, size, cost of $1.3m), strategic value (hitting targets deep inside Russia, compelling Putin), and logistical challenges (naval launch, limited land-launched Typhon systems).

  8. Tomahawk | Cruise Missile, History, Uses & Capabilities | Britannica

    Supports technical details on the Tomahawk's range (up to 2,400 km/1,500 miles), speed (885 km/550 miles per hour), low-altitude flight (30–90 metres), and launch methods (vertical from ships, horizontal from submarines).

  9. Trump tells Zelensky he's reluctant to sell Ukraine Tomahawk missiles after warning Russia he might

    Confirms the date (Oct. 17, 2025), the location (Cabinet Room), the core request, Zelensky's 'proposition' for drones in exchange for Tomahawks, Trump's quote on his 'obligation' to be 'completely stocked up,' and the Tomahawk's range (995 miles/1,600 km).

  10. Trump says he will meet Putin in Hungary after 'productive' talks ahead of Zelenskyy's White House visit

    Supports the date of the Trump-Putin call (Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025), the announcement of the Budapest summit, Trump's description of the call as 'productive' and that 'great progress was made,' and Trump's earlier warning to Putin about sending Tomahawks.

  11. Trump plans Putin summit on Ukraine, raising stakes for Zelensky meeting

    Confirms the 'productive' call, the Budapest summit announcement, the timing raising the stakes for Zelensky, and Zelensky's tweet that 'nothing has changed for Russia' despite the call.

  12. Trump wary of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine - Zelensky offers drone deal

    Supports Trump's warning that Tomahawks 'could be a major escalation,' the joint decision with Putin on Budapest, the shared respect for Orbán, Zelensky's quote on offering 'thousands of drones,' and Trump calling the idea 'interesting.'

  13. Trump says Tomahawks could escalate Ukraine war as Zelensky visits

    Confirms the date (Oct. 17, 2025), Trump's quote that Tomahawks are a 'big deal' and could escalate the conflict, Zelensky's quote that 'Putin doesn't want it' (peace), and Trump's belief that both leaders want the war to end.

  14. How Tomahawk missiles could change the war between Russia and Ukraine

    Supports the Tomahawk's range (at least 1,600 km) and its low-flying characteristic, making it hard to detect.

  15. Trump suggests too soon for Tomahawks in talks with Zelensky

    Supports Trump's quote about hoping they won't need Tomahawks, his confidence in getting Putin to end the invasion, the three-and-a-half-year length of the invasion, Putin's warning against the weapons, and Zelensky's statement that Putin was 'not ready' for peace.

  16. Analysis: Experts See 'Smart, Strategic' Move in Zelensky's 'Drone for Tomahawk' Deal

    Provides expert analysis on the 'drone for Tomahawk' proposal, calling it 'smart, strategic,' and supports Trump's quote that Ukraine makes a 'very good drone' and his acknowledgement of drone warfare's prominence.

  17. Zelenskyy offers Trump drones in exchange for Tomahawk missiles

    Confirms Zelensky's intention to propose a deal to receive Tomahawk cruise missiles in exchange for Ukrainian drones.

  18. Zelensky Asked Trump for Tomahawk Missiles, but the U.S. Refused Ukraine

    Supports Zelensky's rationale that having the Tomahawks would be 'additional pressure on Putin to sit down and talk,' even if not used.

  19. Trump signals reluctance to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles

    Supports the discussion of other topics, including Zelensky's meeting with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and US energy companies about storing US liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Ukrainian facilities, and Zelensky's tweet about Russia 'still terrorizing life in Ukraine.'

  20. Trump, Putin to meet in Budapest for new Ukraine peace push

    Confirms the two-and-a-half-hour length of the Trump-Putin call, the announcement of the Budapest summit, the expected timing ('within two weeks or so'), and Putin's warning on 5 October about long-range missiles.

  21. 'Putin got scared' — Trump needs to be wary of Russia's delaying tactic, Ukraine lawmaker, experts warn

    Supports the view that the Trump-Putin call was a Russian tactic to derail Western support, including the quote from MP Oleksandr Merezhko that 'Putin got scared' and was trying to create a 'semblance of negotiations.'